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Top 15 2008 Impact Rookies for Fantasy Basketball

Posted by Ed on Sunday, October 19, 2008

Greg Oden Portland Trailblazers Image

I have never been a fan of getting rookies in my fantasy teams because of their lack of experience, bad field goal percentage, and the number of turnovers but there are some gems out there who have done great in their rookie years (Duncan, Lebron, Chris Paul, ) which gives me hope that there should be rookies this year who could help your team win. I don't have a crystal ball to know who will succeed or who will fail but by analyzing their situations in their respective teams, somehow we could know how they will play this upcoming NBA season. Here's a list of the top 15 impact rookies:

1. Greg Oden - C, Portland Trailblazers

Greg Oden may have been picked in the rookie class of 2007 but a knee injury sidelined him for the whole year which makes him eligible to challenge rookies Michael Beasley, OJ Mayo and the rest of the 2008 rookie class for the ROY. Despite not playing, he has already earned a year of experience watching his Trailblazers have a respectable record last year and it looks like he will try to help his team reach the playoffs this year as the anchor of their defense. His talent and size have been compared to a 21-year old Shaq and to emulate "the Diesel" would be great. If he could avoid injury and fouls, this young man could average 14 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks and a high FG%.

Draft Round: 5th-7th Round

2. Michael Beasley - PF, Miami Heat

Even if this kid is just a rookie, he already aims to be not only the NBA Rookie of the Year but also the NBA MVP. He has high hopes and I am a believer as long as he focuses on basketball and avoid off-court issues. Having his former coach move in with him will be beneficial in order for him to help the Heat get back to the playoffs. This guy has unlimited potential and his court sense is what makes him different from the other rookies. His lefty jumper is just sweet and his body is NBA ready meaning that he will be quicker and more explosive than most PFs with his low-post moves and just power his way against other SFs. He will have some rookie pains but expect him to average 20 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1 block, 1 steal and a three while providing you with 48-49% FG and around 75% FT.

Draft Round: 6th-7th Round

3. OJ Mayo - SG, Memphis Grizzlies

If we base it on the preseason games, OJ Mayo is just NBA ready. He has been playing great in their games and he hasn't been wild with his FG%, which is something I wasn't expecting and his TOs have been in check. Everyone knows what this kid can do and he can score...at will. With the lack of scoring options in Memphis, Coach Iavaroni has given him and Rudy Gay the green light to shoot from down town. His shooting percentage will suffer but as long as he gets to the line he will be money. He shot 80.3% in college and I'm expecting him to reach that with high volume of free throws. His Turnovers might be high come the regular season but he will make up for it by having close to 2 steals a game. He will definitely get 20 points a night, with 4 rebounds, 3 assists and 2 threes a game.

Draft Round: 8th Round

4. Kevin Love - PF/C, Minnesota Timberwolves

Kevin Love isn't the greatest athlete in his rookie class or the quickest for that matter. He has had some problems with his knee and his conditioning needs work, which makes Timberwolves' Coach Wittman a little concerned. Despite these, Kevin Love is one of the smartest and talented and he has hired a personal chef to help him with his diet. His skill level is just great and he could be the next Brad Miller. He is someone who can finish well near the basket, grab rebounds, and pass like a guard (just wait for those outlet passes). He will pair up with Al Jefferson really well as he will play the high post while Al Jeff plays the low post and the Wolves need a big man and he will be given his minutes. If you need a center in the middle to late rounds who can give you high 50% FG, 13 points, 8 rebounds and over 3 assists(very high for a big man) a game then go ahead and give your team some Love.

Draft Round: 8th-9th Round

5. Derrick Rose - PG, Chicago Bulls

This guy wasn't picked by Chicago to just sit on the bench and watch Kirk Hinrich direct this team. He will be given minutes but it would be hard to see him reach 30 minutes a night as the Bulls have such a deep backcourt (Hinrich, Gordon, Hughes, and Sefolosha). I am expecting a trade in the Bulls to give way to Rose's development. His court awareness and talent will keep the Bulls running and I'd love to see him reach 7 assists per night, which is highly attainable given the offensive options the Bulls have. If you need a PG in the middle rounds go ahead and draft this kid as he is the 2nd rookie guard that should be take in this year's draft. Expect 10 points, 7 assists and 1.5 steals a night.

Draft Round: 9th - 10th Round

6. Rudy Fernandez - PG/SG, Portland Trailblazers

Rudy! Rudy! That is what Portland fans will cheer all season long. After having a great Olympics and an exciting preseason (before spraining his ankle), Fernandez will try to carry that over to his rookie season. The injury of Martell Webster will help put him into the starting lineup or at least the 6th man of this team. Coach McMillain loves this kid because of his versatility and smarts. With lots of international experience under his belt, it looks he will play very maturely against other rookies. His six steals in the preseason is a great indicator how good defensively he is. Just as long as he gets at least 25 minutes a night, look for him to get you 10 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4 assists, and over a steal a game. This is a solid pick for someone who is being drafted at the end of most drafts.

Draft Round: 10th-12th Round

7. Marc Gasol - C, Memphis Grizzlies

There's just minimal competition for the bigmen positions in Memphis , which is great for Pau's younger brother and of course, great for fantasy players wanting to draft him. Darko Milicic is a bust and Hamed Haddadi is just raw. He has great court instincts and hands that would be great for shooting and passing the ball in the low post. He has a wider frame compared with his brother and that would be important for banging bodies in the paint and helping him collar down rebounds. Unfortunately, he uses his hands a lot that would translate to more fouls. This is something he has to improve on in order to play minutes and be a fantasy factor. I am still high on this guy and despite expected struggles in the beginning of the season I'm expecting him to average a double double in the 2nd half of the season. If you need rebounds and blocks at the end of your draft don't be scared to draft Marc Gasol. He'll be giving you

season averages of 12 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and great FG%.

Draft Round: 12th-13th Round

8. Jerryd Bayless - PG, Portland Trailblazers

Another beneficiary of the injury of Martell Webster is Jerryd Bayless. He will be given more minutes despite playing behind Steve Blake. Since the Blazers are lacking players in the small forward position, Roy may, at times, play that position and pave some way for Bayless to get more experience running the team. Coach McMillan has said that he wants to limit his rotation to 8 players and Bayless will be in that, which will be fantastic for those who would draft him at the end of the draft. Given 25 minutes a game, he could average 10 points, 4 assists, 1 steal and a three.

Draft Round: 12th-13th Round

9. Brook Lopez - C, New Jersey Nets

The Nets have 5 players listed at PF/C and one at PF and everyone except for Stromile Swift should be getting regular minutes. They're all good but not great - yet. That includes Brook Lopez who will fight his way for minutes against Josh Boone, Sean Williams, Swift and Ryan Anderson. Count Yi Jian Lian as another big man who will steal minutes of the other bigmen and we have a logjam. Coach Lawrence Frank suggested a platoon substitution, which is not good for those who would want to draft any Nets player. Just keep an eye on Lopez because he has such great offensive skills and his rebounding isn't bad for a big man. He will also help you when you need blocks late in the draft. End of the season average should be 9 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1 block.

Draft Round: 12th-13th Round

10. Russell Westbrook - PG, Oklahoma City Thunder

Although he didn't play pure point guard in college, he will be forced to play that position in the NBA. He had averages of 12.7 ppg and 4.3 assists as a sophomore in college but he was named Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year. With the Thunder focusing more on defense, he will have his shot especially when Coach Carlesimo realizes that they don't have a shot in making the playoffs this year and decides to let the future BIG 3 (Durant, Green and Westbrook) run the show in OKC. My projections for this kid is 7 points, 4.5 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1.8 steals a game.

Draft Round: 13th

Other rookies to consider:

Robin Lopez - C, Phoenix Suns

Roy Hibbert - C, Indiana Pacers

Eric Gordon - SG, LA Clippers

Jason Thompson - PF, Sacramento Kings

Mario Chalmers - PG, Miami Heat

Picture by: tastyvu

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